The price of coal or short - to stabilize the domestic coal market trend forecast analysis. October 2015
September 15th hearing, the national development and Reform Commission recently showed that the first 7 months of this year, the national coal production 21 tons, down 5.3%. However, the first 6 months of data show that the output fell by 7.4%.
Xing Lei, director of the China Coal Economic Research Institute of Central University of Finance and Economics, said, the current decline in coal production has narrowed, the task is still relatively difficult to control the production capacity."
Due to the slowdown in coal demand, domestic coal supply and demand is still grim. It is understood that the Qinhuangdao coal trading market recently released by the Bohai coal price index closed at 409 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the year fell by 20%, compared with the historical high fell to more than 50%.
However, the majority of people in the industry is still not optimistic about coal prices to stabilize, Fenwei energy coal analyst Xufeng said "at present economic environment has not improved, upstream and downstream of the industry, mines, trader, power plants are still relatively pessimistic, now look at not in the end where the Ministry."
Not long ago, web site development and Reform Commission issued before July supply of coal production profile shows that Q railway coal shipped 11.87 million tons, down 11.1%. Imports of 1.2 tons of coal, down 33.7%. At the end of 7, the national key power plant coal 65290000 tons, can be used for 20 days.
Since last year, in the slowdown in demand for coal, the international energy prices and other multiple factors, domestic coal economic operation situation worsened, control of coal production, ensure coal prices to become the main task of the domestic coal industry.
In early 8, the State Administration of safety production supervision, said that by the end of this year, the total number of coal mines in our country to control the following 10000, the second half will continue to shut down a large number of coal mines.
Xing Lei, director of the China Coal Economic Research Institute of Central University of Finance and Economics, "at present, the domestic coal supply and demand imbalance is serious, a lot of excess capacity, but the demand has been falling, control production has become the main means of self-help industry."
However, due to low concentration and low, the domestic coal production control failed to perform, Xing Lei said, the first 6 months of production fell by 7.4%, now the decline in July has narrowed the situation, the task is still relatively difficult to control the production capacity."
Fenwei energy coal analyst Xufeng said, "coal production compared to the same period last year declined, but the overall yield or difficult to control. Small and medium coal mines shut down for the total impact is not a lot of the production capacity of several major mining areas is still quite strong, and not much lower."
Xing Lei introduced, China's coal production is mainly determined by the provinces of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other major coal production, they are not down, the national output is very difficult to fall. However, due to the quality of coal in several provinces, the relationship between each other is still in a competitive relationship."
Shanxi Provincial Bureau of statistics data show that before July, Shanxi Province, the total production of 5.31 tons of coal, down 4.3%. Lower than the national coal production decline.
Shaanxi province from January to July coal production and sales data, shows that from July to January, Shaanxi coal production of 2.63 tons, down 20200000 tons, down 7.1%.
In addition, 1 to July, Shandong coal production 86100000 tons, down 5.5%; Yunnan coal production 27630000 tons, down 10.7%; Liaoning Province, state-owned key coal mines coal production 30820000 tons, down 7.8%.
For the reasons for the decline in railway coal shipments, Xing Lei explained, on the one hand is the decline in coal demand, due to the decline in coal prices, coal profits fell, coal traders have to compress the circulation costs to maintain profit margins."
"According to the calculation, the railway transportation to your 10 dollars than automotive costs, although railway transport has a large capacity, speed and other advantages, but because of the coal price is too low now, the 10 pieces of money determines the their profit space, so some companies opted to trucks." Xing Lei said.
And the reduction of coal imports also because of the decline in prices, Wang Xufeng introduced, early, the relevant departments in addition to a "commodity coal quality management approach", the various indicators of imports of coal specifications, so that the beginning of import reduction. Later, due to the decline in coal prices, the spread of domestic coal and imported coal is not particularly large, the advantages of imported coal is not, so the amount of imports is not up again. Recently because of the exchange rate, but also have a certain degree of impact."
The continued decline in coal prices has a direct impact on the profitability of domestic coal mining enterprises. Data show that the first 6 months of this year, the national scale coal enterprises to achieve profit of 20050000000 yuan, only 10.5% of the same period in 2012, the company's loss amounted to 48410000000 yuan, the loss of large and medium-sized coal enterprises has reached more than 70%.
Wang Xufeng, "since 2012, domestic coal industry supply and demand relationship began imbalance, but previously mainly reflected in supplier, overcapacity situation more serious. However, since the beginning of this year, under the policy and market of repression, overcapacity in the domestic situation has improved some, now the main problem is demand for coal has been in decline. "
Xing Lei earlier said in an interview, from the first half of the economic data, although economic growth reached 7%, but the energy consumption growth of only 0.7%, the real economy is very obvious signs of downward. Now the energy consumption of the second industry is more obvious, industrial electricity consumption, electricity consumption is declining, the decline in electricity consumption has led to a decline in coal consumption."
In addition, the coal industry investment in fixed assets is also due to the decline in coal prices have decreased.
Statistical data shows, from 1 to July, the national fixed asset investment in the coal mining and washing industry
For 213000000000 yuan, down 13.4%. Private coal mining and dressing industry investment in fixed assets of 121100000000 yuan, down 9.4%.
Wang Xufeng said, in recent years, coal profits fell very fast, profit margins have shrunk a lot, while the industry investment is certainly to consider the return on investment, no return, industry investment will certainly be reduced. In fact, around 2008, the coal industry is in a huge profits, the industry investment year by year. But now the industry profits thin, they can not see the good trend, then, industry investment will gradually reduce."
For the problem of when the coal price rise and rise, most people in the industry said that is not optimistic.
Wang Xufeng said, the current economic environment has not improved, the entire industry, the mine, traders, power plants are still relatively pessimistic, and now do not see where the bottom of the coal price."
Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and other 12 departments issued on the implementation of the illegal construction and production of coal mines Joint Disciplinary notice, will urge the provincial departments to verify the last year of illegal construction and production of coal mines list, before the end of 8 this year to complete the announcement and report. At the same time, the relevant departments will cooperate closely, do a good job in accordance with regulatory and joint discipline.
While the number of domestic provinces and the recent announcement of the control of coal production in the province. Among them, the coal industry in Inner Mongolia province plans to control the total coal production in the region this year, less than 10 tons of raw coal, Shandong Province in 2015, the province's coal output control in 1.46 tons, compared with last year to reduce 2000000 tons.
Xing Lei said, the exact implementation of coal production control, coupled with the increase in new capacity, such as the October winter heating demand rise, coal prices should have a short period of stabilization."